Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 19.311698 20.986252 22.833897 25.042657 27.637090 30.621351 34.364338
2024-10-27 17.350092 19.685697 22.468158 26.104002 30.854777 37.051841 46.133734
2024-11-03 15.486147 18.083979 21.346171 25.894437 32.353748 41.733869 57.688825
2024-11-10 14.234905 17.002559 20.627839 25.964857 34.126703 47.264550 73.493431
2024-11-17 13.310583 16.194821 20.107876 26.145903 36.023297 53.609549 95.533830
2024-11-24 12.553142 15.506870 19.633409 26.264345 37.792024 60.424454 126.116937
2024-12-01 11.819374 14.768737 18.982526 25.972674 38.743886 66.048415 162.644987
2024-12-08 11.271818 14.238705 18.569662 25.982425 40.228631 73.636076 225.766465
2024-12-15 10.741461 13.686454 18.060120 25.739922 41.144390 80.400702 315.779616
2024-12-22 10.266916 13.179239 17.569357 25.453785 41.894513 87.278538 465.650246
2024-12-29 9.858733 12.741951 17.148638 25.232541 42.733933 95.168527 779.555518
2025-01-05 9.504247 12.362280 16.787504 25.071329 43.676807 104.368696 1710.132833
2025-01-12 9.092170 11.876628 16.225596 24.479265 43.495865 109.511446 4538.845300
2025-01-19 8.994670 11.870507 16.458322 25.466665 47.621310 139.059226 NaN
2025-01-26 8.701865 11.540716 16.116073 25.251611 48.478390 154.122278 NaN
2025-02-02 8.476472 11.305460 15.919061 25.313121 50.169442 178.454794 NaN
2025-02-09 8.284557 11.113122 15.782067 25.483980 52.273089 212.771682 NaN
2025-02-16 8.097696 10.918997 15.627366 25.596299 54.260531 255.461465 NaN
2025-02-23 7.869161 10.646158 15.313424 25.316518 54.865543 287.927310 NaN
2025-03-02 7.694568 10.454260 15.134657 25.325661 56.525946 348.683762 NaN
2025-03-09 7.499479 10.220158 14.864469 25.093288 57.249737 404.486612 NaN
2025-03-16 7.310736 9.989372 14.588011 24.819084 57.757351 467.760529 NaN
2025-03-23 7.140474 9.783248 14.346937 24.607019 58.477484 557.045417 NaN